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Prediction for CME (2025-11-10T09:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-11-10T09:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/42575/-1
CME Note: [PRELIMINARY] Halo CME seen in SOHO LASCO C2, SOHO LASCO C3, and GOES CCOR-1 and wide CME seen predominantly to the northeast in STEREO A COR2A in association with an eruptive X1.2-class solar flare from Active Region 14274 (N25W16). The solar flare is best seen in GOES SUVI 131 and a faint circular EUV wave is seen propagating shortly following the flare in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 angstrom imagers.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-11-11T22:11Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-11-12T08:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 51111
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Nov 2025, 1254UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 11 Nov 2025  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 12 Nov 2025  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 051
PREDICTIONS FOR 13 Nov 2025  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 007

Coronal mass ejections: A full halo CME was observed on 10 Nov following
the X1.2 flare (SIDC CME 559) from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274).
The true radial speed is estimated at about 1300 km/s. The arrival of the
associated interplanetary shock at Earth is expected late on 11 Nov to
early on 12 Nov. 


#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A halo coronal mass ejection was observed yesterday following the X1.2 flare (SIDC CME 559) from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274). It has an estimated true speed of about 1300 km/s. The shock arrival at Earth is expected late on 11 November to early on 12 November. The geomagnetic response will depend on the magnetic field orientation within the ejecta and could reach major storm levels (Kp 6 to Kp 7). The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux has remained above 10 pfu since 11:30 UTC on 10 November following this X1.2 flare.

From the same region, an X5.2 solar flare peaked at 10:04 UTC on 11 November. Further significant flares from this region remain possible.
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #
# Royal Observatory of Belgium                                       #

Lead Time: 3.27 hour(s)
Difference: -9.82 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M SWAO) on 2025-11-11T18:55Z

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